AL Central Preview

In this 2nd of 7 MLB Season previews, I take a look at the AL Central. The Central is stacked, but will it be the Indians or the Tigers that take the crown?

Detroit Tigers Projected Finish: First

What went wrong last year: The Tigers biggest disappointment had to be the bullpen. What was such a strength the year before became a question mark with the injury to Zumaya and the up and down performances from Rodney and Todd Jones. Magglio was an A-Rod away from being MVP last year, but the end of the line-up was a little light on offense. That is really a small complaint, but I had to key in on something.

Did they fix it: YES. The Tigers made the biggest splash this offseason by trading for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, not to mention a pretty good piece for a platoon in the outfield by trading for Jacque Jones. The bullpen may still be a question with the health of Zumaya and the effectiveness of Jones, but their offense may be able to smooth that over in the regular season.

2008 Best Case: The Tigers have the best offensive season a team has ever had, with power all the way up and down the line-up. Dontrelle pitches like he did when the Marlins won it all, and Cabrera puts up a typical year. Their bench helps with any minor injuries they incur over the season, which leads to a Central crown. Their pitching and potent offense propels them to the World Series, where they win in Game 7 because their pitcher makes a spectacular play on defense, brining redemption to the entire organization.

2008 Worst Case: Dontrelle pitches like Nate Robertson-lite and gets lit up by American League clubs. Zumaya and Rodney don’t come close to being their former selves, getting hit much more than they ever have been. Jones begins to look too old for the closers position and begins to blow 3 run leads. The offense is still amazing, but with no pitching to back it up, this team falls short of its true potential and finishes in 2nd place.

Cleveland Indians Projected Finish: Second

What went wrong last year: Let’s just be honest and throw this out here right away: They Choked. They pulled a 03′ Chicago Cubs by losing a series when their two best pitchers had a chance to close it out. Sabathia was dreadful for the whole ALCS, and Carmona didn’t fare much better.

Did they fix it: It all depends on C.C and Fausto’s mental state. If they can take what happened in 07′ and work it into a positive, then they will be fine. This is largely the exact same team that went to the playoffs last year, sans Kenny Lofton and the over payed Trot Nixon.

2008 Best Case: C.C and Fausto have great years again and Laffey provides a good option as a 5th starter. The offense, while young in some places, rallies around a comeback year from Travis “Pronk” Hafner. This team finishes with the best record in the Central after a tough battle with the Tigers, and goes on to win the World Series.

2008 Worst Case: Fausto doesn’t pitch near the level he did a year ago and trade talks hinder C.C’s performance. The young players on offense don’t really catch on and Hafner continues to have a power outage. This team has enough pitching to compete until the last few month of the season, but the Tigers have just gotten too strong in the offseason for the Indians to overtake them. They go into a September tail-spin, and end up in 3rd place.

Chicago White Sox Projected Finish: Third

What went wrong last year: The starting rotation outside of Buehrle was a huge disappointment, and the bullpen was a train wreck by the end of the season. Ozzie’s job as manager was called into question a few times, and there was a circus around Buehrle when the rumors of trades popped up. The team that won the 2005 World Series only finished 3 games ahead of the Royals. Yikes.

Did they fix it: The bullpen is greatly improved this year if everyone can stay healthy. The White Sox signed Dotel and Linebrink in hopes of bridging the gap to closer Bobby Jenks. The starting rotation is still a big question mark. Buehrle is the only one you can count on, as Vazquez and (especially) Contreras have proven to be wildly inconstant in their pitching performances. Danks and Floyd at the back end of the rotation have potential to do some good thing, but not a whole lot is expected of them.

2008 Best Case: The bullpen is no longer a problem and the Dotel/Jenks combo is one of the most effective in all of baseball. The starting pitching struggles at times, but the offense picks up the slack behind Swisher/Dye/Konerko. Orlando Cabrera provides a spark to the offense by getting on base and hitting for a high average. This team puts together one great run which gets them into second place at the end of the season, where the miss the Wild Card.

2008 Worst Case: Dotel continues to have injury problems and Linebrink continues to be as ineffective as he was with the Brewers. The starting rotation 2 through 5 is a complete mess and the Sox set a franchise record for starting pitchers used in a season. The offense is functional, but Swisher and Cabrera don’t work out exactly as the White Sox brass had in mind. It all leads to another disappointing 4th place finish.

Minnesota Twins Projected Finish: Fourth

What went wrong last year: The Twins in 07 were very light hitting. Some people had decent years statistically, but the production was low all over the line-up. Liriano being injured the entire season didn’t help their cause, plus Johan Santana didn’t have his best year in the W/L columns. The Twins really didn’t have a shot last year in an extremely tough AL Central, but 4 games under .500 was still disappointing.

Did they fix it: They traded Santana and Matt Garza, lost Hunter and Silva to free agency… but I still think this team is better overall last year. I know it sounds like blasphemy saying that they got better after trading away the best pitcher in all of baseball, but I think it’s true in the long and short term. Offensively, they acquired Delmon Young, Adam Everett, Mike Lamb, and a bevy of younger players that will make an impact in the future. The rotation will go through many of the things it went through last year. One outstanding pitcher (Liriano), with the rest of the guys trying to prove themselves. Signing Livan Hernandez was a good move because it provides the Twins with a guy who can eat innings and grab a few wins in the process.

2008 Best Case: Liriano pitches like he did in 2006 and has a BETTER season than Johan Santana. Most of the rotation, while young, pitches well enough to give the game to the bullpen where Joe Nathan remains one of the best closers in baseball. The offense sees improvement with Delmon Young continuing to put up numbers in his 2nd year, and a re-energized Adam Everett has the best offensive season of his career. This teams ends up a few games over .500, which is impressive considering what they traded away in the offseason. Still, the Indians and Tigers are just too good at this point, and the Twins settle for 3rd.

2008 Worst Case: Liriano continues to have injury problems that make him miss a few weeks at a time. Without Liriano, this rotation is below average and is preyed upon by other Central teams. Even in games they lead, getting the ball to Joe Nathan is a struggle. Everett and Lamb turn out to be flops, with Delmon Young entering a Sophomore slump. Nothing seems to go right as the Twins slip into the cellar and finish the season in last place.

Kansas City Royals Projected Finish: LAST

What went wrong last year: For starters, they were the Royals. All kidding aside, the much talked about Gil Meche set the world on fire after his opening day performance a year ago, and that was about the highlight of the Royals season. Their young players just haven’t panned out the way they were expecting, and that puts a lot of pressure on Alex Gordon to have a better season this year.

Did they fix it: Signing Jose Guillen to a contract added some veteran leadership along Mark Grudzielanek to a team that needs some leaders in the clubhouse. The starting rotation isn’t in as bad of shape as some other teams in baseball, and they have the potential to impress. Brian Bannister flew under the radar last year but had a great season, and if Gil Meche can post another 3.67 ERA in the AL, then this rotation can be much improved.

2008 Best Case: The starting rotation turns into a huge surprise for everyone. Meche validates his contract he signed last year and Bannister continues to progress as a pitcher. Greinke/Tomko/Hudson provide a solid back end of the rotation that keeps the Royals in some games. The offensive production of Jose Guillen is a welcome addition and Alex Gordon up his batting average and power numbers enough to become a force in the line-up. Joakim Soria continues to turn into a shut down pitcher at the end of games. This teams rides a good mix of veterans and youth to a surprising 3rd place finish in the Central.

2008 Worst Case: The rotation completely tanks with the 3 through 5 guys pitching ineffectively the entire season. Gordon disappoints with a regression in his offensive game, and Guillen only plays when he feels like it. No one steps up in the already tired bullpen to get the ball to Soria, who doesn’t match last years numbers. This team has a few bright spots, but it ultimately ends with the Royals finishing in dead last.

Final Predictions for the AL Central

Tigers (102-60)
Indians (93-69)
White Sox (80-82)
Twins (75-87)
Royals (72-90)