AL East Preview

In the 3rd of 7 MLB Season previews, the AL East is put under the microscope. The Red Sox and the Yanks are (surprise!) the class of the AL East again, but who will win the heavyweight fight to take the East crown?

New York Yankees Projected Finish: First

What went wrong last year: The starting pitching was in flux the entire season last year. Phil Hughes was injured early and wasn’t able to show off his true potential. Mo Rivera was not very effective in the beginning of year, and even when he was effective the Yanks couldn’t get the ball to him consistently. That was until Joba Chamberlain came to the big leagues and dominated in the setup role. Roger Clemens coming back to this team was a distraction and probably hurt this team rather than help it. Not to mention that the offense came up small in the post season again. Whether that can be attributed to the Indians pitching or a certain pressure/choke factor for the Yankees is for you to decide.

Did they fix it: The starting rotation should be much improved this year if they can stay healthy. Phil Hughes should have a solid year, and Ian Kennedy will surprise some people. I also expect 15+ wins from Wang and Andy Pettitte. I don’t buy the notion that Pettitte will be haunted by the HGH stories that went on this offseason. The last time I saw Pettitte pitch in the ALDS, he was flat out dominant. Joba sticking in the bullpen is a must this year, but if the rotation needs help, Joba can be plugged in there and the Yankees can hope that newly acquired LaTroy Hawkins will do what he did in Colorado and not what he did in Chicago. This offense will be one of the best in the league again.

2008 Best Case: Kennedy and Hughes have breakout years which keeps Joba in the bullpen to setup Mo Rivera. Hawkins provides a shut down 7th inning guy and the Yanks bullpen becomes a strong point again. Moose recovers from a terrible 2007 with 13 wins and an era around 4.15, which is all that is required of him. The offense continues to put up numbers with Giambi having a better year and Melky progressing at the plate. Speaking of Melky, he turns into one of the best center fielders in baseball and leads everyone in the AL in outfield assists. The Yankees ride a hot streak and overtake the Red Sox in the final week to get into first place, where the shed their post season demons and win World Series number 27.

2008 Worst Case: Kennedy and Hughes struggle in the rotation which brings Joba into the mix as a starter. With Joba out of the bullpen, Hawkins can’t handle the pressure of setting up for Mo Rivera and the bullpen becomes a problem again. Giambi’s power numbers continue to drop and Posada and Damon begin to look old. In hopes of staying in the race, the Yanks make some rash moves to get back into the playoff hunt that will hurt them in the coming years. They make an early September run, but the Red Sox outplay them in the final weeks of the season. The Yankees end up in second place and out of the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox Projected Finish: Second

What went wrong last year: It’s really hard to pick on a team that won the World Series. It’s also hard to say that they will finish in second place in the East with much of the same team.

Did they fix it: The Red Sox didn’t do much in terms of moves in the offseason, but they really didn’t have to. They have the young players coming up through their system (Buchholz and Ellsbury) where they could really just sit on their hands and still get better. Schilling’s injury may be career threatening, but you can’t trust anything that involves Curt Schilling because he is the MLBs drama queen as it is.

2008 Best Case: The Red Sox are a well oiled machine that plays with a ton of confidence and a good mix of veterans and youth. Buchholz shows flashes of brilliance in what is a little bit of an up and down season, while Lester is a reliable 4th or 5th starter that gives the Sox innings and victories to go along with it. Papelbon continues his dominance in the closers role, while Okajima has another great season setting up. Ellsbury is the second coming of Johnny Damon and energizes the entire line-up. That coupled with typical Ortiz and Manny years give the Red Sox a dangerous offense. They pull away from the Yanks in the final month and enjoy another first place season. Schilling makes another dramatic comeback in the playoffs and pitches them to back to back World Series Titles.

2008 Worst Case: The young players that showed promise last year come up short in their first full season in the big leagues. Injuries finally catch up to Big Papi who misses a few months with lower body ailments. Manny seems unhappy in the locker room which hurts the team chemistry. The offense still puts up numbers and the bullpen is still solid, but an inconstant starting rotation proves to be too big of an obstacle to over come as the Red Sox watch the Yankees grab first place and never let go. The Red Sox finish in 2nd place and miss the Wild Card.

Toronto Blue Jays Projected Finish: Third

What went wrong last year: The Blue Jays got a lot of disappointing performances from their marquis players last year. Vernon Wells didn’t live up to the contract he signed and AJ Burnett continued to be hounded by injuries. BJ Ryan was injured early on in the year and his presence was missed in the bullpen. It also doesn’t help that they continue to play in a division with the Yanks and Red Sox, who outspend them year after year.

Did they fix it: It’s hard to fix injuries and under performance. The Jays lost Troy Glaus but turned around an aquired Scott Rolen, which makes it a push. Eckstein will help with the offense at the top of the order. All in all, this team didn’t really change much in the offseason other than the left side of the infield. The Blue Jays just have to hope that everyone can stay healthy.

2008 Best Case: Burnett finally pitches an entire season healthy and begins to show signs of the pitcher they signed all those years ago. BJ Ryan is 100% and returns to his pre-injury form. Wells picks up the slack he left last year, and Alex Rios continues to get better and better at the plate. McGowan and Marcum bust out and have great years as starters and Doc Halladay puts up another Cy Young season. The Blue Jays stay attached to the hips of the Yankees and Red Sox the entire season, and eventually end up overtaking one of them and ending the season in 2nd place in the East where they miss the Wild Card.

2008 Worst Case: Burnett continues to be a disappointment with more injury problems. While Halladay pitches well, the back end of the rotation doesn’t step up to fill the void left by Burnett. Ryan doesn’t look the same coming off the injury, and has a bad year by his standards. Wells puts up another sub-par year and Rios takes a step back in his progression. Rolen struggles at the plate and beings to show his age in the field where he commits more errors than he ever has. The team struggles for most of the year and its shows in the standings, where they finish in 4th place.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Projected Finish: Fourth

What went wrong last year: Things actually started to look up for the D-Rays (I can call them that because I’m talking about 07) last year with the emergence of James Shields and Carlos Pena. The offense was suspect at times, with Baldelli missing a large amount of the season. They traded away the once promising Jorge Cantu to the Reds and lost Delmon Young in a trade to the Twins.

Did they fix it: I think the Rays might be one of the most improved teams in the American League outside of Detroit. I like their top 3 starters (Shields/Kazmir/Garza) and Troy Percival will pitch well for them. Rookie 3rd basemen Evan Longoria will have all eyes on him as the starting 3rd basemen. Signing Cliff Floyd and plugging him in the DH spot will help this team on the field and give the Rays some veteran leadership.

2008 Best Case: Kazmir get through the season injury free and reminds us why he is one of the best left handers in all of baseball. Shield and Garza both pitch very well and the back end of the rotation does its part. The offense is filled with stars in BJ Upton, Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, and a resurgent Rocco Baldelli. Percival is an effective closer and helps seal up close games. This team surprises everyone by becoming the most improved team record wise and finish in 3rd place and over .500.

2008 Worst Case: Kazmir continues to struggle with injuries, and Shield can’t find the magic he had last year. Longoria struggles with the bat, Pena turns out to be a fluke, and Iwamura’s position change effects him at the plate. Percival just doesn’t have anything left in the tank and the Rays blow games in the late innings because of it. This team makes strides during the season, but just can’t turn the corner and take it to the next level. They ride a roller coaster the entire season and end up in 4th place.

Baltimore Orioles Projected Finish: LAST

What went wrong last year: The starting and middle relief pitching was a problem for the whole season, and Ray being injured and ineffective as the closer provided no stability anywhere. Corey Patterson continued to play far below his potential with a bat in his hands and the offense as a whole under preformed. Not to mention that they got beat 30-3 by the Rangers. *Cringe*

Did they fix it: An emphatic NO. They traded away their two best players in Bedard and Tejada in hopes of getting better in the future. If you read between the lines, that means that they have a potential to be atrocious this year. They did get back some nice pieces in the trades they made, namely Adam Jones and George Sherrill, but that won’t nearly be enough. The outfield has the potential to be a surprise, but that may be one of the few bright spots.

2008 Best Case: If you read the two segments above, you may already realize that this section may be a little bleak. Daniel Cabrera finds his control and beings to lower his WHIP and becomes one of the better pitchers in the MLB. The rest of the starters 2 through 5 go through growing pains, but they each do well enough to consider their season a success. The offense will likely be drained of any proven talent by the time the trading deadline comes around, but the young guys do well enough in their absence. Adam Jones turns out to be a super star in the making, and gives the Orioles some hope going into 2009. There are some positives in the season, but it ultimately ends with the O’s finishing in 4th place.

2008 Worst Case: The starting rotation is an absolute travesty and an abomination to all man kind. Daniel Cabrera continues to send more people walking than ever thought humanly possible, and 2 through 5 is an absolute crap shoot. All this over taxes an already weak bullpen and sends the Orioles on numerous losing streaks. The offense loses what constancy it had by the trading deadline where everyone with a resume is traded away, and the young players just can’t pick up the slack. The Orioles finish in last place in the East with the worst record in all of baseball.

Final Predictions for the AL East

Yankees (94-68)
Red Sox (92-70)
Blue Jays (86-76)
Rays (78-84)
Orioles (66-96)